DI PHILIPPE CHALMIN lemonde.fr.
“La carenza di alimenti si fece sentire già in primavera. Il prezzo del grano aumentò in tutti i paesi: in Francia, il prezzo per un ettolitro passò da 17,15 a 39,75 franchi, fino a 43 franchi a fine anno… La crisi di sussistenza generò presto disordini popolari…”.
In questo modo veniva descritta la situazione agricola europea tra il 1847 e il 1848 dallo storiografo Charles Pouthas. Qualche settimana dopo, la situazione in Europa diventava così incandescente da affondare l’ordine assolutista sancito dal Congresso di Vienna. Dall’Italia soffiava il vento della rivolta che arrivò in Francia, poi in Vienna and throughout the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and soon made itself felt in Germany and Switzerland. Between February and March 1848, the French monarchy fell with the abdication of Louis Philippe, Metternich lost his power in Vienna and Frankfurt, Germany proclaimed the creation of the first parliament.
If current events have not unexpected twists, the "springtime of peoples" remembers "the winter Arabic" we are experiencing today, with the same spread of the revolutionary spirit from Tunisia to Egypt, to Yemen or the Jordan. Surely in 1848 there was no Internet or Facebook, but that does not dampened the rapid circulation of information: The news of the fall of Louis Philippe caused the capitulation of Metternich, as well as that of Ben Ali shakes Mubarak, in both cases, however, the agricultural crisis and the impression prices are rising at the base of the riots.
Continental Europe in 1849 was not self-sufficient in the production of agricultural goods. To power the city had to import wheat from America and Russia, and the only weapon in the hands of governments was that of customs duties, which will further increase prices for consumers. The reasons for the spark that ignited Europe at the end of 1847 are undoubtedly linked its agriculture. The situation
the Arab world in 2011 is comparable to that of Europe in 1847. The area stretching from Morocco to the Persian-Arabian Gulf is one of the main regions of world imports of cereals (10 million tonnes of Egypt, 5 million to Algeria and Iran, Morocco and Iraq 3, 7 million tonnes Barley Saudi Arabia, etc ...), sugar, oil, poultry and beef. Most of these states, with the exception of Morocco, have abandoned any kind of agricultural policy and their economy depends on imports to supply their cities. With a little 'oil can, of course, to buy grain, oil and sugar. But the increase world agricultural commodity prices in the second half of 2010 has led to unrest among consumers. There were no real "hunger riots", but simple demonstrations against high prices.
As in 1848 the political and social discontent did the rest. Of course, the situation varies depending on the possibility that the country has to pay whether or not the imports with the proceeds from oil, the two weaker states, Tunisia and Egypt, do not have oil, while in Algeria, Tripoli, Riyadh and in the Gulf, governments are doing everything to make their daily bread to the urban masses. It 's a short-sighted tactic, but it has always been used by monarchs as they get older.
Nel 1848, lo Zar salvava l’impero austriaco, la Prussia aveva prevalso sulla Germania, e Luigi Napoleone stava già cominciando a indebolire la Repubblica. Auguriamo a questo inverno arabo un finale migliore, ma non scordiamoci dell’importanza della crisi agricola, che scuote il mondo dopo 160 anni.
Philippe Chalmin, professore dell’Università Paris-Dauphine, è uno dei massimi esperti mondiali di materie prime alimentari. Coordina la pubblicazione annuale del rapporto Cyclope (Cicli e orientamenti di prodotti e scambi) sui mercati mondiali. E’ fondatore e coordinatore dal 2000 del Club Ulysse, uno dei principali forum di economisti francesi.
Versione originale:
Source: www.lemonde.fr
Link: http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2011/02/14/1848-2011-les-revoltes-de-la-faim_1479709_3232.html
14.02. 2011
translation from English ( 1848, 2011: Las Revueltas's hambre http://www.sinpermiso.info/textos/index.php?id=3957 ) for www.comedonchisciotte.org by ROBERTO CERQUETANI
From: www.comedonchisciotte.org
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