These days, it was concluded the process begun more than 10 years ago against Vatican Radio for emissions his station of Santa Maria di Galeria near Cesano (Rome). Vatican Radio has been found guilty for violating the limits set, electro. The President of Codacons, the lawyer Carlo Rienzi, who sponsored the cause of the people affected, said: " is a great victory at last justice is done and the inhabitants of Cesano can obtain just compensation." Rienzi, now focuses on the other foot in case against Vatican Radio: " much more serious than the increase in leukemia mortality among the inhabitants of Cesanese .
The increase of mortality from leukemia is a very serious and delicate, and va chiarita, perché è un falso .
La prima cosa da chiarire è cosa si intende per “ aumento ” della mortalità, o dell’incidenza di una certa malattia, riferito a delle persone in un certo ambiente. L’aumento si intende rispetto all’incidenza della stessa malattia rispetto alla “normalità”. Per esempio il cancro al polmone colpisce una certa percentuale delle persone che non fumano e che vivono in condizioni normali. Le persone che fumano hanno un’incidenza maggiore di cancro al polmone, c’è un aumento dei casi di cancro dovuto al fatto di essere fumatori. Quindi se ne deduce che fumare aumenta the incidence of lung cancer.
But as there is increasing? It 's a problem of statistical , where you need a brief introduction on the basics of probability.
Take a coin. To find out if it is tweaked, the launching pad for a sufficiently large number of times, such as 100, and record how many times you head out (T). We expect to be about 50. In fact, the probability of T is 50%, and 0.5. Multiplied by the number of rolls (100) is precisely 50, and that's what we expect if the coin is "honest." In fact we have "about" 50 T, sometimes 48, elsewhere 51 and so on. But if we get 80 out of 100 T launches we are (almost) sure that the coin is rigged.
Here is an event that comes close to statistical problem of the increase in cases of leukemia in Cesano. Take a nut and want to know if it is "rigged", ie if a certain number, for example 3, was released several times than normal. The probability of having a 3 in a roll is 1 / 6, cioè1: 6 = 0.167. If you run it once and leaves a 3, we could say that the die is rigged because the 3 is out 1 / 0, 6 = 167 times more than what we expect? No, it makes no sense, because the test is done with a large number of launches. On a single case can not be apply a statistical analysis!
This is exactly what it says for the increase in leukemia in Cesano. Here are the details: a year in Cesano a child died of leukemia (1 case). We calculate the expected value of deaths from leukemia in relation to the population of the area where the girl lived, and was 0.16. Some people, ignorant or in bad faith, made the calculation 1 / 0, 16 = 6.2, and then said that the incidence of death from leukemia was six times the normal . This figure was taken from Republic and from all Italian newspapers until he left the complaint. It has now come to the end. Vatican Radio has been found guilty, rightly, ma non per aver causato la leucemia. Ma perché, come aveva denunciato più di 10 anni fa il magistrato Amendola, le emissioni di Radio Vaticana superavano i limiti di legge imposti dallo Stato Italiano malgrado invocasse la condizione di extraterritorialità.
Pe le leucemie, invece, la commissione istituita da Umberto Veronesi e composta da quattro esperti in leucemie e tumori indotti dalle radiazioni (due italiani, un inglese, un tedesco) ha concluso che:
* i dati esaminati non dimostrano una relazione tra emissioni radio del Centro di Radio Vaticana di S.Maria di Galeria ed incidenza e mortalità per leucemie infantili;
* la mortalità e l’incidenza di childhood leukemia in the area surrounding 10km to the Radio is no different from those of the municipality of Rome;
* is not established either an excess incidence of leukemia in a neighborhood of 10km from the Radio, or a decrease in risk of increasing distance from the plant .
Meanwhile, the presidents of associations of consumers who trust in the increase in cash belonging to the greater state contributions continue to play with the good faith of those affected in their suffering and fear due to 'ignorance .
If new data arrives, measurements, scientific assessments will be the first to change his mind, but until then we will defend the truth, even if uncomfortable.
Charles Cosmelli
Article Source: www.cronachelaiche.it/
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